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Two days remaining.

England's opening match in Australia starts on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we examine where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It’s challenging to score runs, isn't it?

Batsmen on both teams of the Ashes rivalry might be wondering why they are even planning to turn up.

Much of the build-up has focused on the perceived challenge of batting successfully, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".

When it comes to batting in Australia, especially against pace bowling, no country has been more difficult in which to accumulate runs over the past five years.

Two key factors for this: pitches and balls.

Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the fastest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A common belief from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in increased seam movement.

Seam is a more significant asset than swing bowling in Australian conditions.

After the new ball's introduction, pace bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about problem solving.

When the ball is on top, batsmen's contributions can be the difference, and the reverse is true.

Should this series be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the opportunity to be the key factor between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australian pace attack?

For once, England have arrived in Australia with their fast-bowling unit largely intact, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Captain Pat Cummins will be absent for the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring injury.

Cummins, Hazlewood and Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 series.

Since then, they have taken together 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and robustness of the 'big three'.

When Australia have required support, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 Tests at an average below 17.

Aside from Scott Boland, other bowlers of Australia's supporting cast have performed well.

Neser, Jhye Richardson and James Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home match without Cummins and Hazlewood, and lost, was in the year 2012.

The past two times they have played at home without the duo, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, including a victory against England in the Adelaide Test previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, results have remained strong – England should pay attention.

Tough at the top

Remember when England struggled to identify an opener to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners faster than Watford change coaches.

Not anymore.

Ever since Duckett and Zak Crawley were united at the England opening slot at the end of 2022, no opening pair in the world has produced more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a reason in Crawley being supported through some patchy form.

The Kent man, who memorably hit the initial delivery of the previous Ashes for four, has also been identified as having the technique for Australia.

His batting average rises when the pace increases.

In comparison, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, still seeking to fill the gap left by David Warner.

Following Warner's departure at the beginning of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 matches.

Uncapped Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 on Friday, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It is not just the opening pair that has posed issues for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was moved to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.

Home performances has earned him a recall, probably returning to number three.

Across seven matches in 2025, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have done worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to ever play.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a moderately successful gamble, appearing out of touch after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the hosts to want Lyon at the forefront, but spin bowling has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.

In that time, slow bowlers have averaged nearly 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's statistics largely stands up compared to the struggles of visiting tweakers.

Lyon's other issue is physically getting on to bowl.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It limits the time Lyon has with the ball.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five matches against India, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was introduced, meaning the spinner has less space to influence the game.

Right place, right time?

The English team have a depressing habit of being defeated in an overseas Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.

Traditionally, the series traditionally started in the Gabba, where they have failed to win since the year 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide.

The visitors have a single victory in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while Australia have won 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a city England have played at 14 times since 1970 and emerged victorious only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the first three stops on the tour are the same, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

The Perth Test hosts an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the famous Waca – site of past English struggles – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It remains a tough assignment, though one the tourists tackle with no historical baggage.

The Gabba is the location for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia competed in a pink-ball Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by the West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now not used to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide Oval.

Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a fresh attempt at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have secured victory in four out of five matches played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the latest game – against India last year.

Each match at the new ground has been claimed by the team setting a target.

England often complicate floodlit Tests, when data suggest the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its red counterpart.

The challenge in {day-night matches|