🔗 Share this article

A key narrative of the Premier League this campaign concerns the decline of goals scored in open play and how clubs are finding goals more from set-plays as an alternative.

Looking at scoring methods to matchday 11 last season, we note 39 fewer goals in open play and 26 more from team set-pieces and penalties, giving us 13 fewer altogether.

If we look at the bigger picture, shot attempts clubs are making show a remarkable drop of 370 in open play than at this stage last time out.

Regardless of the notable jump in set-piece goals, there have actually been just two more attempts produced from them outside of penalties, demonstrating the proficiency sides have been at devising strategies to net from set-pieces.

Goal Statistics Tell the Tale

Over 300 goals notched in 110 matches so far works out at nearly 2.75 goals each match, if this persists for the whole season would be the smallest for since 2020-21, from five seasons ago (2.69 average).

But just 196 scores coming in open-play equates to 1.78 each match and is tracking to be the least for since 2009-10, since 2009-10 (1.76).

That campaign also marks the sole English top-flight season to experience goals scored more frequently from non-penalty set-pieces than this campaign's frequency of 0.77 each match (0.79 per game).

What Clubs Account for This Change?

In terms of scoring from open play, Wolves have seen by far the biggest decrease, netting just four in 11 matches, 10 less than at this stage the previous campaign.

Excluding Wolves, the Premier League's drop in open play goals is very much a London thing, with five out of the capital's seven sides netting at least five goals fewer from open play than the prior season.

In fairness, this is mainly because them scoring lots of goals at the beginning of the previous campaign rather than their genuine struggle to score in open-play this season.

Meanwhile Man City have seen the most significant jump, with almost every one of their 23 scores this season originating in open-play.

Set-Play Proficiency

Comparing the promoted teams with those that were relegated they replaced. Sunderland Sunderland have recorded three more goals in open-play than Southampton did in matchday 11 on their way to demotion last season.

In terms of goals scored from dead-ball situations (not counting penalties), Arsenal and Chelsea have seen the most significant jump, with each team making up for the reduction of five goals that they've netted in open play with an equal amount from set-pieces.

Manchester United have scored two times more goals from set-pieces as they did in the first 11 matches last season ahead of the manager assumed control, while Sunderland once more prove more successful at scoring than the fellow red-and-whites they superseded.

Manchester City appear not to have received the trend about increasing scoring from set-pieces, because they've recorded three less than last season, like Forest, though this could be because of the tactical shift they're working to install.

Overall Patterns

Six teams – Arsenal, Chelsea, Fulham, Newcastle, Tottenham and the Hammers – are this term's leading trend-followers by netting less scores from open-play and additional from set-pieces, while City are the unique club to defy the pattern up to now by achieving the complete reverse.

It will be fascinating to watch if sides persist to place such emphasis on set-plays as the campaign progresses or if they rediscover their overall inventiveness and start converting more goals in open-play also.