Everyday Murders in Mexico Drop Thirty-Seven Percent During President Sheinbaum, According to Government Figures

The typical count of per-day homicides per month in Mexico has decreased by more than a third since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, per recent official data. But, security experts have cautioned that murder numbers may not indicate better countrywide security.

Notable Decline in Daily Figures

Officials reported an mean of nearly 55 murders a day in November compared with nearly 87 when the President began the presidency in September. This announcement was delivered by the chief of the nation's federal safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The result in killings that have been recorded in these past months is remarkably significant,” Claudia Sheinbaum stated, adding that in November the least figure of murders were documented for any single November in the past decade.

Recent Context and Government Strategy

Fierce drug cartel rivalries, coupled with the administration's heavily military operations to confront the trafficking organizations, have led to Mexico’s murder numbers soar in the past few years. The rate reached a peak of 36,773 homicides in 2020, according to the nation's national statistics agency.

That gave Mexico a murder rate more than 4x greater than that of the United States. Since then, killings have been on the downward trend, falling to 33,550 the previous year. Claudia Sheinbaum has attributed her national security plan for an seemingly steeper decline in killings in the current year.

At a media briefing in August, the President declared: “There is a strategy, we have monitoring of the plan, and we have detailed tracking locality by locality in some cases. The strategy is effective. And we have to persist at it daily.”

The key pillars of Sheinbaum’s safety strategy include:

• Strengthening Mexico’s national guard.
• Improving intelligence and investigation efforts.
• Increased cooperation between government authorities.

Expert Warnings and Data Limitations

But, public safety analysts warned that focusing solely on murder data to draw a conclusion of improved security was flawed. This is especially true in light of the increase in different crimes such as people going missing.

“This would be excellent information if this were a decrease, but I think we can’t just focus on the homicide numbers and think: ‘Well then, good,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexico's cartels. “I would be guardedly positive.”

According to the policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, killings in total dropped by more than 20% in the first 10 months of this year versus the identical period the previous year. Yet, missing persons cases have gone up by 15% and in some regions have increased by as much as 200%.

“Data on murders is no longer valid for estimating the situation of violence,” stated Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and investigators who do not have the ability or the inclination to accurately identify and classify corpses. Second, organised [criminals] … have the ability to conceal violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas noted that using monthly means of everyday killings was similarly an issue because it could obscure periods when there were particularly high levels of murders.

“Relying on the daily average makes spikes of violence unseen,” he concluded.

Arrests and Seizures as Measures of Success

Where the government can cite the effectiveness of its security plan is on arrests and seizures. Nearly 40,000 suspects were arrested between October 2024 and November 2025 for serious crimes, according to official data. Over 20,000 weapons were seized and 311 tons of narcotics seized.

“Donald Trump cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of not acting, because the reality is she is doing a lot with these thousands of detentions, thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical weakening of organised crime. It’s highly in political terms advantageous,” stated Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Public Frustration

But notwithstanding these actions, Mexico remains grappling with severe bloodshed, with several regions in the grip of cartel-related violence. Last month there was a high-profile killing of a popular mayor in the region of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders assassinated in the last 12 months.

A short time after, thousands of young people protested in Mexico City and across the nation to voice their frustration at corruption and drug violence.

“The federal government presents [data] in a manner to build a narrative of security. Politically it’s very effective, from a social perspective it’s extremely problematic,” the analyst concluded.